.Forecasting Mavericks

cov forecastingmavericksThe whims of Mother nature play a major role in whether or not Mavericks is called each year

The Mavericks surf contest is not like the Super Bowl—even though it has been called “the Super Bowl of surfing.” The time, date and location of America’s beloved football championship is known years in advance. The Mavericks big wave contest, this year named the “Titans of Mavericks,” is not so blessed. Mother nature will decide when or even if it will be held at all.

What many people don’t realize is that the conditions necessary to hold the event only happen one or two times a year. The contest will only take place when the waves are “20-foot Hawaiian, or 40-foot faces,” says Mark Sponsler, lead forecaster for Titans of Mavericks, and founder of stormsurf.com. Besides wave heights, winds need to be relatively slack, the tide and swell direction need to be just right, and all of these conditions need to hold for eight hours. Dense fog, which often accompanies really big waves is also a wildcard, and is notoriously difficult to forecast.

Although no one can look into a crystal ball and predict exactly when the contest will happen, meteorologists can peek around the corner with the aid of computer weather models. Realistically, the proper swell can be predicted by approximately five to eight days, however, the local conditions also needed to run the contest can only be predicted by about three days.

The March 31st deadline for the event to be held is fast approaching. For some of this year’s contestants who dedicate themselves to training year round for the “moment of their lives,” this might be their only shot. Next year, there will invariably be new people who rise up to the challenge, and take their place. Mavericks is very difficult to schedule, which makes it a gamble for those surfers who dare to brave the life-threatening wave. Contestants come from all over the world, and their dedication to this event necessitates them to go to extremes. Some big wave surfers quit their jobs and drop everything to buy a last-minute plane ticket. Why? For the chance to ride one of the Earth’s biggest waves in one of the most watched surf contests of the year, of course.


PHOTO: Kenny “Skindog” Collins rides a monster wave in the 2009/2010 Mavericks Surf Contest on February 13, 2010 in Half Moon Bay, California. RICK WHITACRE

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