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Can Vaccination and Infection Rates Add Up to Reach Covid Herd Immunity?

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March 18, 2021

Can Vaccination and Infection Rates Add Up to Reach Covid Herd Immunity?

It’s been a long, dark winter of covid concerns, stoked by high post-holiday case counts and the American death tally exceeding 530,000 lives lost. But with three vaccines — Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson — now authorized for emergency use in the United States, there seems to be hope that the pandemic’s end may be in sight.

A recent analysis by the Wall Street research firm Fundstrat Global Advisors fueled this idea, suggesting as many as nine states were already reaching the coveted “herd immunity” status as of March 7, signaling that a return to normal was close at hand.

“Presumed ‘herd immunity’ is ‘the combined value of infections + vaccinations as % population > 60%,’” noted a tweet by a CNBC anchor based on a more complete analysis by the firm. That got us thinking: Does this calculation hold up?

First, do public health experts generally consider herd immunity to kick in at 60%? In addition, does current scientific thinking equate protection from the antibodies generated by past covid infections with the same degree of protection as a vaccination?

We decided to find out.

First, a review of herd immunity. Also known as community or population immunity, the term is used to describe the point at which enough people are sufficiently resistant — or have an immune response — to an infectious agent that it has difficulty spreading to others.

In this explainer, we noted that people generally gain immunity either from vaccination or infection. For contagious diseases that have marked modern history — smallpox, polio, diphtheria or rubella — vaccines have been the mechanism through which herd immunity was achieved.

While the United States is getting closer to this point, most health experts caution, it still has ground to cover. Fundstrat’s analysis offered a rosier take. Although the site is located behind a paywall, the chart generated buzz on Twitter and in news outlets like the Daily Caller.

Fundstrat relied on a variety of sources — particularly, a data scientist and pandemic modeler named Youyang Gu — to determine what level of immunity a state needs to stamp out covid, said Ken Xuan, the firm’s head of data science research. From there, analysts created a chart intended to track the level of covid immunity in each state. They calculated the number by adding the percentage of people estimated to have been infected with the virus to the percentage of people who had received the vaccine.

Xuan, who was quick to note that he is not a public health expert, said he and his team followed Gu’s predictions and arrived at 60%, a figure he acknowledges is an assumption.

“The idea would be we don’t know if 60% is true,” he said. However, if states that have reached this threshold see steep declines in covid cases, “then it’s the number to watch.”

What About the 60% Marker?

Throughout the pandemic, health experts have tended to set the magic number for herd immunity between 50% and 70% — with most, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, leaning toward the higher end of the spectrum.

“I would say 75 to 85% would have to get vaccinated if you want to have that blanket of herd immunity,” he told NPR in December.

The experts we consulted were skeptical of the 60% figure, saying the mechanics of the Fundstrat analysis were relatively sound but oversimplified.

Ali Mokdad, chief strategy officer for population health at the University of Washington, said the level of immunity needed to reach this goal can vary due to several factors. “Nobody knows what is herd immunity for covid-19 because it’s a new virus,” he said.

That said, Mokdad described using 60% as “totally wrong.” Data from other communities around the world show covid outbreaks happening at or near that level of immunity, he said. Indeed, the city of Manaus in Brazil saw cases drop for several months, then surge despite three-fourths of their residents already having had the virus.

Josh Michaud, associate director for global health policy at KFF, described the 60% assumption as “off-base.”

And some said it wasn’t even the main point.

Dr. Jeff Engel, senior adviser for covid at the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, said the question of herd immunity may not even be relevant because, regarding covid, we may never reach it. The novel virus may become endemic, he said, which means it will continue circulating like influenza or the common cold. For him, lowering deaths and hospitalizations is more important.

“The concept of herd immunity means that once we reach the threshold, it’s going to go away,” Engel said. “That’s not the case. That’s a false notion.”

Natural and Vaccine Immunity — Should They Be Lumped Together?

When asked why the Fundstrat analysis treated the two types of immunity as equivalent, Xuan said it was an assumption.

Here’s what current science supports.

Those who receive any of the three vaccines available in the United States enjoy a high level of protection against getting seriously sick and dying from covid — even after one dose of a two-shot series.

In addition, people who were infected and recovered from the virus appear to retain some protection for at least 90 days after testing positive. Immunity may be lower and decline faster among people who developed few to no symptoms.

Practically speaking, two experts said, natural and vaccine-induced immunity work the same way in the body. This lends credibility to Fundstrat’s approach.

However, some health experts consider vaccine-induced immunity to be better than the protection generated by the infection because it may be more robust, said Michaud. Researchers are still figuring out whether people who were infected with the virus but experienced mild or no symptoms generated an immune response as strong as those who developed more severe disease.

In fact, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention cites the unknowns surrounding natural immunity and the risk of getting sick again with covid as reasons for those who had the virus to get a vaccine.

“They haven’t been studied well at all yet,” said Engel, in reference to asymptomatic people. “And maybe we’re going to discover that a large group of them didn’t develop really robust immunity.”

Both types of viral protection leave room for potential breakthrough infections, Michaud said. Neither offers “perfect immunity,” he said. And wild cards remain. How long do both types of immunity last? How do different people’s systems respond? How protected will people be from emerging coronavirus variants?

“It’s a witches’ brew of different factors to consider when you’re trying to estimate herd immunity at this point,” said Michaud.

This story was produced by KHN (Kaiser Health News), a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues. Together with Policy Analysis and Polling, KHN is one of the three major operating programs at KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation). KFF is an endowed nonprofit organization providing information on health issues to the nation.

Small Landlords Left Struggling When Renters Stop Paying

CalMatters

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March 18, 2021

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Small Landlords Left Struggling When Renters Stop Paying

BY KATE CIMINI

At the start of the pandemic, Brandon McCall’s two tenants ran into financial trouble. One had surgery, and went on disability, which tightened his purse strings. The other, who works in entertainment, was laid off almost immediately, and wasn’t eligible for unemployment as a contract worker. With a limited amount of cash coming in, McCall said the two of them stopped paying rent on his Van Nuys condo in Los Angeles.

McCall looked into mortgage forbearance, but decided to pass when he learned it would impact his credit. He would also have to pay in full after his deferral period was up. Unsure when the tenants would start paying again, McCall and his wife dipped into savings to cover the mortgage on their condo even as they rent elsewhere for work.

“Landlords rights and tenants rights are the same thing,” McCall said. “They’re often pitted against each other, but they’re the same thing. … I want to stay housed. I want to keep my tenants housed. We’re all in this together.”

Throughout the past year, small landlords such as the McCalls have struggled to pay their mortgage when tenants became unable to pay. The state plans to provide some relief by using $2.6 billion in federal assistance as rent subsidies to pay landlords 80% of unpaid back rent of low-income tenants between April 2020 and March 2021. In exchange, landlords must agree to forgive the remaining 20% in back rent and agree not to pursue evictions.

The state rent relief program will not help McCall’s tenants, though; they make too much to qualify. Still, he said, he has been trying to help, connecting them to other relief programs and even putting them in touch with a local council person who might be able to offer assistance.

He is not contemplating eviction of his tenants, who have since gotten on a payment plan and are catching up on rent, citing his belief in the importance of affordable housing. But a number of small landlords are in the same boat as McCall: pinched from both ends, and wondering how much longer they are going to be able to float their own lives as well as their investment properties.

Small landlords struggle

Unlike the 2008 housing crisis when subprime lending triggered a wave of foreclosures, experts say property owners have fared surprisingly well during the pandemic. Homeowners, especially, have been assisted by low-interest rates and federally mandated mortgage forbearance. Edward S. Gordon Professor of Real Estate in the Finance Division at Columbia Business School Tomasz Piskorski estimated that some 60 million borrowers absorbed about $70 billion in debt during the pandemic.

However, not all small property owners have been able to take advantage of government relief even as they absorb the costs for renters.

“There are some landlords that will struggle to pay their bills because they aren’t receiving rent from tenants, or have units sitting vacant,” said Zillow economist Jeff Tucker. “It’s not like a larger property management company that can manage units and mostly muddle through. For a smaller-scale landlord with only a handful of rental units, they could easily be forced to sell their rental units or be foreclosed on if they have a mortgage on it.”

According to the 2015 American Housing Survey, nationally, about individual investors own 22.7 million units, accounting for a little under half the total number of rentals. Individual investors are more likely to own single-family homes or duplexes. About 70% of the rentals in LA are five units or less.

In large cities like San Francisco, rentals saw declines of 8% or 9% year over year. While low-income workers were more likely to be laid off and moved out to cut costs, wealthier renters, including a record number of millenials, ditched renting to become first-time homebuyers.

Desperate to get people in the door, landlords, many with mortgages on the properties they rent out, began offering months of free rent, free gym memberships and hundreds of dollars in gift cards to new renters.

Diane Robertson, a founding member of Coalition of Small Rental Property Owners, an LA-based grassroots organization that advocates for small landlords, worries about the future of rentals for small landlords. She founded the group after the state passed an eviction moratorium in 2020.

“There is a misconception about property owners in general,” Robertson said. “Small, independent owners, we are more like our tenants than not. If we have a duplex and one of those tenants is not paying rent, well, that’s half of your rental income. If you have more tenants, you can withstand a few of those tenants not paying rent, but that’s not the case for us.”

Protecting landlords

Noni Richen is the board president of the Small Property Owners of San Francisco Institute, a nonprofit that aids small, local landlords. Most members are retired, and many live in a duplex, renting out the other apartment so they can make their mortgage payments or supplement their Social Security.

In December, a San Francisco landlord wrote to Richen, begging for assistance. She had received certified letters from her lender threatening foreclosure.

The woman, who had owned and managed two properties for 20 years, skipped three mortgage payments to save up for property taxes when a tenant stopped paying rent and she couldn’t evict them due to the pandemic, Richen said.

“Do you know if it’s legal for banks to foreclose during this pandemic,” she asked Richen. “Is there any relief that you know of for landlords?”

Other landlords have written to Richen with similar problems.

The threat of foreclosure isn’t just hurting landlords, it’s also hurting tenants, Richen said. Not only is the landlord facing a financial setback, her tenants may not have a place to live.

When the landlord is a renter

McCall is one of those landlords.

In December, he got an email from his landlords’ property manager that said their daughter would be taking over the management of their properties. It requested that McCall and his wife move out within 60 days.

McCall provided a copy of the email to CalMatters and The Salinas Californian. His landlord did not immediately return a request for comment.

With no cause of eviction listed, McCall initially refused to vacate the property, though he and his wife are considering moving out. Still, he said, it was uncomfortable being on both sides of this: potentially facing eviction while using his own savings to cover for tenants who still haven’t caught up on rental payments.

Robertson said problems like the ones McCall is facing are a result of lawmakers discounting the needs of landlords, who may go into foreclosure. Even though the powerful California Apartment Association backed the eviction moratorium deal covering 80% of back rent for low-income renters, Assemblymember Laurie Davies, a Laguna Niguel Republican, said landlords would still be on the hook for insurance, property taxes and maintenance costs. The deal also doesn’t cover many renters who made decent wages before the pandemic.

“I think, at the end of the day, landlords are not anti-renter,” Robertson said. “We want solutions that benefit both sides. I do think, though, that landlords want to be made whole.”

Slipping through the cracks

Under the CARES Act pandemic relief bill passed in April, federal lenders are required to provide 12 months of forbearance to homeowners unable to make their mortgage payments due to COVID-19. Since it would not count as delinquency, it helped keep people housed during the pandemic and kept foreclosures low.

Still, some property owners slipped through the cracks. Because the federal moratorium only applies to federal lenders, state or local lenders, such as local banks or credit unions, have continued to foreclose on landlords.

Under the Biden administration, California homeowners might see an extension of the forbearance provision, which could help some landlords who have lost out on rent. Economists say the share of homes in forbearance — about 2.5 million — hasn’t fallen much since October, indicating that those in forbearance have continued to renew out of necessity.

Meanwhile, landlords like the McCalls hope to avoid forbearance by waiting it out.

“At this point, we’re just a few months away from running out the clock on their 12 months,” Tucker, the Zillow economist, said. “That is going to loom large as a policy challenge this spring. Frankly, there’s a very good chance the simple solution is to kick the can down the road three or six months…but it’s a challenge.”

This article is part of the California Divide, a collaboration among newsrooms examining income inequality and economic survival in California.

CalMatters.org is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media venture explaining California policies and politics.

Where’s My Stimulus Payment? Maybe in Your Account (Finally!)

The New York Times

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March 17, 2021

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Where’s My Stimulus Payment? Maybe in Your Account (Finally!)

By Ron Lieber and Tara Siegel Bernard

For the third time in less than a year, the federal government is sending stimulus payments to millions of Americans, no small logistical feat. But that doesn’t mean it will go smoothly for everyone.

Some 90 million payments — totaling about $242.2 billion — are landing in bank accounts via direct deposit Wednesday, the Treasury Department said. An additional 150,000 payments should also arrive shortly, in the form of paper checks. And still more will go out in the coming weeks.

The payments — a maximum of $1,400 — are the largest issued to date, and eligibility has been expanded to dependent adults, including college students. As with previous rounds of pandemic stimulus, many banks are making the full amount of the payments available to customers, even if the money went into overdrawn accounts.

But there could still be bumps ahead for some recipients. The fast phase-outs of payments mean people might receive less than they would have under prior rounds, or no payment at all. The legislative process that Congress used to pass the bill has left payments vulnerable to private debt collectors. Your payment could arrive in a different form this time. And the eligibility rules mean you may (or may not) be allowed to keep a payment issued for a now-deceased spouse.

There’s even been confusion in recent days about the timing of the payments, after some financial institutions chose to make the money available before the government actually began delivering it Wednesday.

After President Joe Biden signed the stimulus bill last week, the IRS, which is pushing out the payments for the Treasury, began sending notices that the relief payments would arrive March 17. But a handful of online institutions, including Current and Chime, credited their customers in advance of the payments’ arrival.

Some customers of traditional banks took notice — or at least hoped the money would arrive over the weekend — and complained on social media that their institutions hadn’t made the money available sooner.

But nine banking and credit union industry groups said in a statement this week that the IRS had determined the details of the deposits and their handling.

“It is up to the sender, in this case the IRS, to decide when it wants the money to be made available and the IRS chose March 17,” they said.

Demand for information hardly slowed Wednesday: Wells Fargo said heavy traffic had temporarily caused problems for its online banking service. “This does not affect stimulus payments with March 17 effective date, which were credited to accounts today,” the company said in a statement.

For this round, payments top out at $1,400 per person, including children and adult dependents. To qualify for the full amount, a single person must have an adjusted gross income of $75,000 or below. For heads of household, adjusted gross income must be $112,500 or less, and for married couples filing jointly that number has to be $150,000 or below.

Partial payments are available to people who earn more, but they fall quickly to zero. For single filers, the checks stop at $80,000. For heads of household, the cutoff is $120,000. And for joint filers, it’s $160,000.

The payment amounts depend on the most recent information on file with the IRS, which could be from your 2019 tax return if you haven’t yet filed for 2020. (If you’re newly eligible for a payment based on your 2020 income but haven’t yet filed your return, the IRS will be able to continue making payments until September. And if you still don’t end up with a payment by then, you can make a claim when you file your 2021 taxes.)

You can find information on the status of your payment by using the IRS’s Get My Payment tool. If the agency has your bank account information, the money should show up automatically if you’re eligible. If you receive veterans’ benefits or Social Security payments, whether for retirement or disability, the IRS will generally send payments the same way you normally get that money. The agency said it planned to announce a payment date for these groups “shortly.”

People who don’t regularly file a tax return that includes any bank account information should keep an eye on the mail for a paper check or a debit card. But just because your previous two payments arrived one way doesn’t mean this one will arrive the same way, according to the IRS, which may send debit cards to ensure that payments are available to recipients more quickly. (If you received a payment on a debit card before, the IRS has already said that it would issue new cards for this payment instead of adding money to the old one.)

In prior stimulus rounds, some recipients have been confused to see their payments destined for unfamiliar accounts — often because they used tax-preparation services that created temporary accounts to receive their refunds. Both H&R Block and Intuit’s TurboTax have posted messages attempting to reassure customers who previously experienced glitches or delays.

Another problem some people encountered in prior rounds: payments addressed to deceased relatives.

If your spouse or dependent died this year, even before Biden signed the bill, you can keep the payment that arrives for them, according to an IRS spokesman. But if they died in 2020, they are not supposed to be eligible. For instructions on how to return any payment that nevertheless arrives for them, visit the IRS website on the page with the phrase “Returning the Economic Impact Payment.”

The bill that authorized this round of payments shields them from government-ordered seizure — for example, if you’re in default on your federal student loans or late with child support payments, according to a Senate Finance Committee spokeswoman.

But private debt collectors can still make a run at the money, which wasn’t the case with the first two rounds of payments. Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., chairman of the Finance Committee, said Senate rules had prevented the inclusion of such a provision in the bill. On Wednesday, several senators introduced stand-alone legislation to fix the problem.

Even so, some entities that might otherwise take a piece of your payment could give you a break, at least temporarily. Bank of America, Capital One, Citibank, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo all said that their customers would have full and immediate access to the payments once they hit their accounts, even if their balances are below zero.

Watsonville Looks to Memorialize Lives Lost in Covid-19 Pandemic

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March 17, 2021

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Watsonville Looks to Memorialize Lives Lost in Covid-19 Pandemic

The city of Watsonville is requesting proposals from an artist, or a group of artists, to design, fabricate and install a temporary or permanent memorial to commemorate and honor Watsonville residents who died after falling ill with Covid-19.

The request for proposals (RFP), which closes on April 2, is open to all working artists above the age of 18 that have “demonstrated mastery in the execution of art pieces using proposed materials.”

“The memorial art piece will give the residents of Watsonville, as well as visitors, a place at which to reflect on this significant time in our country’s history,” the RFP reads.

The proposal went live as Santa Cruz County approached the 200-death mark and reached the one-year anniversary of the countywide shutdown that sought to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus. Since then, more than 15,000 county residents have tested positive for Covid-19 and 455 have been hospitalized with the disease. The majority of the county’s Covid-19 cases have been in Watsonville residents.

“Covid hit our community the hardest,” Watsonville Assistant City Manager Tamara Vides said. “There were many lives, unfortunately, that were lost in this historical event.”

It is unclear how many Watsonville residents have died with Covid-19 as a contributing factor, as the county has not yet publicly released data on deaths by zip code or city despite multiple requests from this publication. According to the county’s most recent data, 196 county residents have died with Covid-19.

The majority of deaths (102) have come in skilled nursing and residential care facilities. That includes the 18 deaths recorded at Watsonville Post Acute Center in an outbreak last year. Other local facilities that saw a resident die with Covid-19 include: Watsonville Nursing Center (4), Valley Convalescent (4), Montecito Manor (3), Rachelle’s Home (3) and De Un Amor (2).

A total of 94 Covid-19-related deaths were not linked to skilled nursing or residential care facilities.

But conditions have improved recently, as intensive care unit bed capacity across the county has stabilized. Watsonville Community Hospital (WCH) told the Pajaronian Tuesday that it did not have a Covid-19 patient in its intensive care unit (ICU) for the first time in several months. The 106-bed, general acute care hospital has treated more than 1,100 Covid-19 patients since the start of the pandemic.

“It’s a great sign,” Vides said of WCH’s ICU not having any Covid-19 patients. “Our numbers are going down, we see that as a trend, not just here but around the state.”

Mayor Jimmy Dutra brought the idea of the memorial forward in a City Council meeting earlier this year, saying that a family member asked if the city could honor those that have died in the last 12 months.

“We’ve lost a lot of people due to Covid in Watsonville,” Dutra said.

If all goes according to plan, the city will conduct interviews with prospective artists the week of April 12 and the proposed project will go before the Parks & Recreation Commission the first week of May. The city could approve a contract with the artist(s) as early as May 11, according to the RFP.

There has been no site selected for the project, and there are no budget limitations included in the RFP—the city is leaving that decision up to the prospective artist(s). The RFP, however, does say that applicants should consider requesting to locate the memorial at City-owned property such as a local park or government building.

High School Football ‘Back on Track’ for This Weekend

Juan Reyes

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March 17, 2021

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High School Football ‘Back on Track’ for This Weekend

The high school football season is back on track, for now, as Santa Cruz County superintendents released updated guidance for outdoor high-contact sports that won’t require teams to test for Covid-19 moving forward.

Pajaro Valley Unified School District Superintendent Dr. Michelle Rodriguez was notified on March 15 that there are no Covid-19 testing requirements for outdoor high-contact sports as long as the county remains in the red tier of the state’s reopening plan, according to the California Department of Public Health (CDPH).

The superintendents met on March 15 and were told by CDPH that athletes don’t have to test prior to a game so long as the county has an adjusted case rate of less than 7 cases per 100,000 residents. That means the six Santa Cruz Coast Athletic League (SCCAL) football games slated for this weekend are ready to go.

“We are now back on track,” Rodriguez said.

Last week, five of the six league games were postponed until April 17, starting with the Belgard Kup between Watsonville and Pajaro Valley high schools.

Rodriguez was informed by the county public health department that their testing plan did not qualify or align with CDPH requirements. She said daily testing had to be implemented and they had to start with a baseline PCR testing.

“That occurred on Friday and we were not able to within hours be able to make a shift. One thing that we want to do is make sure and not put the future of the entire season in jeopardy by not following health guidelines,” she said.

In February, CDPH updated its guidance for outdoor and indoor youth sports. The state announced that outdoor high-contact sports previously only allowed in the “moderate” orange tier, were allowed to be played in the most-restrictive “widespread” purple tier or “substantial” red tier if the county has an adjusted case rate equal to or less than 14 per 100,000.

The state further updated that guidance on March 4, stating that teams can return to competition only if they adhere to the stricter requirements in place for college teams. The terms include rigorous testing requirements around each competition, following contact tracing protocols and coordination with local health authorities.

County spokesman Jason Hoppin confirmed that they are responsible for implementing the guidance in the school districts. But, he said the county public health department doesn’t have any orders related to testing, competition, practice or spectators for high school sports.

“They do not need approval from us, they just have to follow the state guidelines,” he said. “We’re just not involved in this process.”

Rodriguez was originally told by CDPH that the district only needed to conduct weekly PCR testing. But as of Monday night, the superintendents were told that the schools no longer need to test as long as the county has an adjusted case rate of less than 7 per 100,000.

To clear up the confusion, Rodriguez teamed up with San Lorenzo Valley Unified Superintendent Laurie Bruton, Santa Cruz City Schools Superintendent Kris Munro, Scotts Valley Unified Superintendent Tanya Krause and Superintendent of Schools Faris Sabbah to come up with a county-issued Guideline for High-Contact Sports, which is the same guidelines provided by CDPH.

“We were all working together to get our student-athletes back on the field,” she said. “We all understand the importance of athletics.”

That’s good news for athletic directors across the county such as Aptos High Athletic Director Travis Fox, who at one point thought the football team was going to play for the first time in more than a year.

The Mariners’ game against Santa Cruz High last week fell through when SCCAL officials notified him that the games were being pushed back because of confusion with testing protocols. The two teams instead decided to hold a scrimmage on Saturday afternoon, but that too was eventually canceled.

Instead, the Mariners held a competitive practice on their newly-renovated field at Trevin Dilfer Memorial Stadium.

“I can tell you that the test results did not impact this decision at all,” he said. “It’s just based on the conflicting information regarding frequency of testing.”

According to the California Guidance for Higher Education, both periodic PCR testing as well as daily antigen testing were acceptable. The guidance had also stated that teams can compete without spectators if the schools can provide coronavirus testing and results within a 48 hour period before a game.

St. Francis High, which is not part of the PVUSD, was cleared and approved by its administrators to play last week’s game against Scotts Valley High.

Athletic director Adam Hazel made sure they followed all of the guidelines given to him, starting with one test on March 2 and another two days prior to their game.

They had nearly 100 tests performed on both the varsity and JV teams, cheerleaders, drumline and the entire coaching staff, according to Hazel. The students were given a PCR test, or nose swab test, which is considered to be the most accurate and reliable test for diagnosing Covid.

“The first time we did the testing it went very smoothly, the company was awesome and coach [John] Ausman, our cheer coach and our band director did a great job directing our kids,” he said.

But things quickly changed on March 12 as the schools were notified that they had to look further into the testing procedures before any more competition could take place.

Hazel said he was notified by SCCAL Commissioner Bob Kittle that the JV team had their game on March 13 postponed, adding to the ongoing frustration felt by him and other athletic directors in the area.

“We’re hoping that everything gets set because we’ve been following all the state guidelines and every guideline put in front of us,” he said.

Kittle told the Pajaronian that he was told the situation was taken care of by the districts’ superintendents and the games are going to resume this weekend.

“We should be back in place with some clear directions this week,” he said. “We’re going as scheduled and that’s our plan.”

What’s on tap

Friday, March 19:

• Aptos at Monte Vista Christian, 7:30pm

• Watsonville at Santa Cruz, 7:30pm

Saturday, March 20:

• St. Francis at San Lorenzo Valley, 2pm

• Soquel at Scotts Valley, 2pm

• Harbor at Pajaro Valley, 2pm

One Santa Cruz Business Owner’s Struggle to Set Up Outdoor Dining

Mat Weir

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March 17, 2021

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One Santa Cruz Business Owner’s Struggle to Set Up Outdoor Dining

Kava is a nonintoxicant drink celebrated for its social nature and euphoric effects. However, things at the MeloMelo Kava Bar are anything but chill.

As for every business during the Covid-19 pandemic, it’s been an arduous year of financial struggles and changing regulations steeped in uncertainty for the downtown Santa Cruz establishment.

Now, the city has slapped a red tag on their outdoor dining structure on Pacific Avenue with an original removal notification slated for March 17, extended for now to March 22. If the business does not comply, it will be fined $2,500 for every day the structure remains, along with any extra fees the city incurs during the process.

“It’s been an exhausting year of trying to navigate this and begging the government for money,” says MeloMelo Kava Bar owner Rami Kayali. “Then to come home and have your own city try to bury you.”

The disputed structure in question is an 8-by-30 foot wooden, covered awning also known as a parklet. Like most Santa Cruz restaurants and bars, MeloMelo began outdoor seating in June as soon as it was allowed while the county was in the purple tier of the state’s reopening plan. The city’s Temporary Outdoor Expansion Area Program, which allows businesses to use outdoor space within certain guidelines, currently has 80 participating establishments.

With the onset of the rainy season earlier this year, MeloMelo General Manager Amira Fangary says they wanted to ensure customers had a dry area to commune and drink their beverages.

“It’s hard to have consistent business hours when the weather dictates when we can be open,” she says.

Temporary emergency codes only allow for open air or tent covered seating, not structured coverings. However, when the MeloMelo bar looked into the tents, Fangary says the two businesses that rent them don’t have anything small enough for their space, which is significantly smaller than areas at other establishments like 515 Kitchen and Cocktails or The Asti.

According to Kayali, he reached out to the Downtown Association on Feb. 9 to ask about permitting. By Feb. 16 he had not received a response and decided to build the structure anyway, citing economic hardship and an opening in his contractor’s schedule, with the next opening at least another six weeks away.

“It was ‘now or never,’” Kayali recalls. “Every time it rained my business went to zero.”

He says the structure was built with pressure-treated wood. It took the contractor roughly six hours to build and cost around $4,000 for materials and labor.

“The guy who built this has built them throughout the Bay Area,” says Kayali, who also owns kava bar locations in Oakland and Berkeley, both of which have wooden parklets.

*MeloMelo Kava Bar’s outdoor dining structure was red tagged by the city of Santa Cruz. PHOTO: MAT WEIR*

The day it was built, the Downtown Association directed Kayali to speak with Rebecca Unitt, business liaison for the Santa Cruz Economic Development Office. Kayali says not only did Unitt tell him the structure was unsanctioned and needed to be immediately removed, MeloMelo also didn’t have a permit for outdoor dining, despite operating outdoor seating with no issue from the city. He says the latter was an “oversight,” as the establishment had applied for outdoor dining insurance and thought the certificate was their permit.

Kayali tells GT that between Feb. 17 and March 10, he and Unitt discussed the best way to proceed with the situation, including filing the proper permits, submitting designs and making sure the parklet was properly anchored, a chief concern of the city. He says he was happy to make the necessary changes assuming it would greenlight the structure. He even offered to pay for structural inspection out of pocket and offered to sign an affidavit agreeing to remove the parklet in October, when the city’s Temporary Outdoor Expansion Area Program is currently slated to end. Emails obtained by GT confirm these claims, although nowhere in the correspondence was approval guaranteed by the city.

After spending another $800 on concrete buckets for anchoring and filing the paperwork, city inspectors assessed the structure, and on March 11 it was red tagged for removal.

“It goes back to it being an unpermitted structure,” says Unitt, adding that under current building codes it is considered a permanent structure, and permanent structures must have anchoring drilled into the ground in some manner. However, as this is on public property, drilling is not permitted.

She says the city is committed to working with businesses, especially during these hard Covid times, but the MeloMelo parklet controversy boils down to safety concerns.

“The structure wasn’t presented to us with any plans to be reviewed, how it was constructed, the materials that went into it, and whether or not it was constructed safely enough to withstand an earthquake,” Unitt says. “Since we didn’t have the plans ahead of time, we were not able to verify any of that.”

She says the city is willing to work with Kayali on a future, temporary, outdoor dining area once the wooden structure has been properly removed.

However, Kayali says that he has already spent most of his money building the parklet and making the necessary guideline changes expressed in the emails. He believes that the cost in tearing it down and having to wait for the proper permitting—on top of spending even more money on new materials—will put him and his employees out of business.

Even with the county now allowing for 25% capacity indoor dining under the red tier of the state’s reopening plan, Kayali says the nature of his business—people gathering for conversation and drinks—does not allow for a high volume turnover as some guests might stay an hour or longer. He also wants to provide open air seating for patrons who might not be comfortable drinking indoors.

Kayali’s attorney and city attorneys are currently discussing the possibility of removing the aluminum roof in exchange for a canvas one to meet current guidelines. However, Unitt tells GT any changes moving forward must be first approved by the city. Kayali says if an agreement is not reached by March 22 he will be pursuing legal action.

“There’s no way I’m taking it down without a logical, sensible reason that’s not something as pedantic as anchoring,” he says. “I’m not really a fighter in that sense, but this is not something I really want to back down [from].”

Things To Do in Santa Cruz: March 17-23

GT Staff

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March 17, 2021

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A weekly guide to what’s happening.

ARTS AND MUSIC

BACH AND MORE FOR ONE AND TWO VIOLINS Concert three of Santa Cruz Baroque Festival Season 48, “Bach and More for One and Two Violins,” is a brilliant performance by two expert performers on the Baroque violin. Edwin Huizinga and Grijda Spiri are scholars of the instrument, both with a deep understanding of how the instrument was played in the Baroque era. They both appreciate the way that Baroque violins differ from modern ones: the gut strings, lower tuning, etc. Though a little bit quieter and less bright than their modern counterparts, the Baroque violin feels more intimate, allowing the moment-to-moment expression of the performer to come through with greater immediacy. You can hear the immediacy in this performance at r.blitzer gallery, with musical phrases sensitively imbued with attitude and emotion, and an understanding of this complex music communicated with great clarity. Playing with the supreme sensitivity that is enabled by the baroque instrument, Huizinga and Spiri transformed the art gallery into a concert hall, enthralling the few engineers and stagehands that were privileged to be at the recording. On March 20, we are sharing their marvelous musical expression with the community at large. scbaroque.org. Saturday, March 20, 7:30pm.

BANFF CENTRE MOUNTAIN FILM FESTIVAL VIRTUAL FESTIVAL All the programs? All the programs! If you’ve been too busy getting after it outdoors, or just haven’t made the time yet, now’s your chance to catch all the Banff Virtual World Tour programs, including the grand prize winner: “Piano to Zanskar.” This year, bring the adventure home! Fluff up your couch cushions, grab a snack of choice, and make sure you have a good internet connection because the Banff Centre Mountain Film Festival World Tour is virtual. Travel to the most remote corners of the world, dive into daring expeditions, and celebrate some of the most remarkable outdoor achievements, all from the comfort of your living room. Films can be purchased individually or as a bundle. Visit riotheatre.com for more information about the online programs and how you can support your local screening. You may also go directly to the Banff affiliate link for the Rio at filmfest.banffcentre.ca/?campaign=WT-163945.

DOWNTOWN SANTA CRUZ MAKERS MARKET Come on out and support local makers and artists at the Downtown Santa Cruz Makers Market every third Sunday of the month on Pacific Avenue at Lincoln Street. We are now on the 1100 block of Pacific Avenue between Cathcart and Lincoln streets near New Leaf and alongside many amazing downtown restaurants. Support local and shop small with over 30 Santa Cruz County artists and makers. And don’t forget to stop in and visit the downtown merchants and grab a bite to eat from the downtown restaurants. Remember to socially distance as you shop and wear your mask. If you’re not feeling well, please stay home. There will be hand sanitizing stations at the market and signs to remind you about all these things. Friendly, leashed pups are welcome at this free event. Sunday, March 21, 10am-5pm.

MEET ARTIST MARC SHARGEL Meet Marc Shargel at the Radius Gallery on Friday, March 19. Marc is featured in a multi-artist show, “450 Pieces,” a tri-gallery exhibition of the Santa Cruz Visual Arts Network. The show runs through March 28. Covid-safety protocol will be in effect. Questions? Email bo***@*************es.com. Friday, March 19, 2:30-5pm. Radius, Gallery, 1050 River St., #127, Santa Cruz.

COMMUNITY

DREAM INN SANTA CRUZ TO CELEBRATE ST. PATRICK’S DAY WITH VERTICAL CONCERT FEATURING THE BLACK IRISH BAND It’s time to bring back live music! Dream Inn Santa Cruz will feature its second live vertical concert with incredible Celtic and Americana music from The Black Irish Band—perfect for celebrating St. Patrick’s Day. An opening DJ and The Black Irish Band will offer a safe, socially distanced, open-air concert live from Dream Inn’s pool deck, with incredible views of the Monterey Bay. Ticket holders will enjoy the concert from their private guest room balconies overlooking the pool deck. Each room offers aerial views over the concert floor and is perfectly equipped for social distancing with private household viewing. Throughout the evening, food and beverage service will be available at Jack’s Patio at Dream Inn Santa Cruz. Room service will also be available. The concert takes place on Wednesday, March 17. Opening DJ begins at 5:30pm and The Black Irish Band begins at 7pm. All ticket packages come with overnight accommodations in a Deluxe Ocean View room, and a private balcony or patio overlooking the pool deck/stage. The package includes all hotel room conveniences. Package rates begin at $519 plus tax; visit dreaminnsantacruz.com/st-patricks-day to book. Dream Inn Santa Cruz, 175 W Cliff Drive, Santa Cruz. Wednesday, March 17, 5:30pm.

SALSA SUELTA FREE ZOOM SESSION Keep in shape! Weekly online session in Cuban-style Salsa Suelta for experienced beginners and up. May include Mambo, ChaChaCha, Afro-Cuban Rumba, Orisha, Son Montuno. No partner required, ages 14 and older. Contact to get the link. salsagente.com. Thursday, March 18, 7pm.

TENANTS’ RIGHTS HELP Tenant Sanctuary is open to renters living in the city of Santa Cruz with questions about their tenants’ rights. Volunteer counselors staff the telephones on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sundays from 10am-2pm. Tenant Sanctuary works to empower tenants by educating them on their rights and providing the tools to pursue those rights. Tenant Sanctuary and their program attorney host free legal clinics for tenants in the city of Santa Cruz. Due to Covid-19 concerns, all services are currently by telephone, email or Zoom. For more information visit tenantsanctuary.org or follow us on Facebook at facebook.com/tenantsanctuary. 831-200-0740. Thursday, March 18, 10am-2pm. Sunday, March 21, 10am-2pm. Tuesday, March 23, 10am-2pm.

GROUPS

CAREGIVER SUPPORT GROUP Support groups create a safe, confidential, supportive environment or community and a chance for family caregivers to develop informal mutual support and social relationships, as well as discover more effective ways to cope with and care for your loved one. Meeting via Zoom and phone. Who may benefit from participating in the support group? Family caregivers who care for persons with Alzheimer’s disease or another dementia, those would like to talk to others in a similar situation, and those who need more information, additional support and caregiving strategies. To register or for questions please call 800-272-3900. Wednesday, March 17, 5:30pm.

ENTRE NOSOTRAS GRUPO DE APOYO Entre Nosotras support group for Spanish-speaking women with a cancer diagnosis. Meets twice monthly. Registration required, call 831-761-3973. Friday, March 19, 6pm.

WOMENCARE ARM-IN-ARM Cancer support group for women with advanced, recurrent, or metastatic cancer. Meets every Monday at 12:30pm via Zoom. All services are free. Registration required. Contact WomenCARE at 831-457-2273 or online at womencaresantacruz.org. Monday, March 22, 12:30pm.

WOMENCARE MINDFULNESS MEDITATION Mindfulness Meditation for women with a cancer diagnosis. Meets the first and third Friday, currently on Zoom. Registration required, call WomenCARE at 831-457-2273. Friday, March 19, 11am-noon.

WOMENCARE TUESDAY SUPPORT GROUP WomenCARE Tuesday Cancer support group for women newly diagnosed and through their treatment. Meets every Tuesday, currently on Zoom. Registration required. Contact WomenCARE at 831-457-2273 or online at womencaresantacruz.org. Tuesday, March 23, 12:30-2pm.

WOMENCARE: LAUGHTER YOGA Laughter yoga for women with a cancer diagnosis. Meets every Wednesday at 3:30 via Zoom. Registration required by contacting 831-457-2273. Wednesday, March 17, 3:30-4:30pm.

OUTDOOR

SATURDAYS IN THE SOIL It’s time to get your hands dirty! The Santa Cruz Museum of Natural History is excited to relaunch Saturdays in the Soil, a monthly volunteer program in our native plant garden. Learn about local ecology, native plants, and sustainable gardening while coming together as a community (in a physically distanced manner) to steward Tyrrell Park through the City’s Adopt-A-Park program. Space is limited and RSVPs are required. Email vo*******@*************um.org to express interest. This native plant garden requires general landscaping, occasional watering, weeding, and replanting. All ages are welcome; children under 14 require adult supervision. Masks are required at all times. You are encouraged to bring your own gloves (though this is not required). Limited to 12 volunteers. Check-in at the amphitheater. Upon arrival, staff will provide an orientation, temperature check, waiver, and social distancing overview. Saturday, March 20, 10am-noon. Santa Cruz Museum of Natural History, 1305 E Cliff Drive, Santa Cruz.

VIRTUAL SCIENCE SUNDAY—WATER MANAGEMENT, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND SALMON HEALTH: THE STORY OF THE SACRAMENTO RIVER Perhaps nowhere else in the world is a water resource management and fisheries management so connected as in California. A vast array of dams and reservoirs in the state provide fresh water for public use, but also impact the health of salmon. For example, in the Sacramento River, the spawning grounds for the endangered winter-run Chinook salmon are solely reliant on the cold water released from Shasta Reservoir upstream. How climate change will impact the ability of upstream reservoirs to sustain water resources for fish and public use remains an important question in California, with implications for drought-prone regions around the world. Join Miles Daniels as he discusses his research exploring the connections between water management, climate change, and salmon health. UCSC March Science Sunday is free for everyone to attend. This is made possible through a generous sponsorship by the UCSC Fisheries Collaborative Program in partnership with the NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center. Register in advance for the online Science Sunday webinar here: seymourcenter.ucsc.edu/learn/ongoing-education/science-sundays. Registration closes an hour prior to the event. Sunday, March 21, 1:30-2:30pm.

VIRTUAL YOUNGER LAGOON RESERVE TOURS Younger Lagoon Reserve is now offering a virtual tour in both English and Spanish. This virtual tour follows the same stops as the Seymour Marine Discovery Center’s docent-led, in-person hiking tour, and is led by a UCSC student. Virtual Younger Lagoon Reserve tours are free and open to the public. Part of the University of California Natural Reserve System, Younger Lagoon Reserve contains diverse coastal habitats and is home to birds of prey, migrating sea birds, bobcats, and other wildlife. See what scientists are doing to track local mammals, restore native habitat, and learn about the workings of one of California’s rare coastal lagoons. Access the tours at seymourcenter.ucsc.edu/visit/behind-the-scenes-tours/#youngerlagoon. Sunday, March 21, 10:30am.

Quentin Shaeffer and Zuzu West Release Collaborative Single

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March 17, 2021

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Quentin Shaeffer and Zuzu West Release Collaborative Single

In 2019, local musician and Cabrillo art student Zuzu West wrote a song called “You” that was so personal, she almost didn’t release it.

It was a response to her boyfriend, who was certain he was more into her than she was him. She disagreed. The lyrics speak plainly:“I want you/I want you baby.” Several friends told her it was awesome and that she should release it. One friend, Sitsa LaTour (from Sacramento band LaTour), even added a super funky bassline to it, giving the song a smooth, jazzy, infectiously-funky pop vibe. West uploaded “You” to her Soundcloud eight months ago.

“I’ve always been a little low on self-esteem when it comes to releasing anything I’ve produced,” she says. “Sitsa was so excited about the song, and it made me realize how valuable it was: That we had created something together, and it was everything we had hoped for.”

Quentin Shaeffer, a fellow Cabrillo student and local musician, met West in late 2019, and hung out with her only once before the pandemic hit and stopped in-person gatherings. When West released “You” on her Soundcloud last year, Shaeffer immediately obsessed over it and wanted to remix it. They released their collaborative version of “You” last month, billed as Quentin Shaeffer and Zuzu West.

The new version is much slicker and electronic-oriented. Shaeffer’s light, airy, electro-pop beats mix seamlessly with West’s breezy vocals and LaTour’s Bootsy Collins-level funky bass line.

Finishing the song was a long process, and the effects of the pandemic altered much of West and Shaeffer’s lives. Before the pandemic, Shaeffer was working in politics as a field strategist. He was knocking on doors, hanging out at farmers markets, and talking face to face with local voters. After the pandemic began, his job turned into managing social media accounts. By mid-August, he moved to Reno to live with his mom to save money amid all the uncertainty.

“I do not recommend staring at Facebook for a living,” Shaeffer says. “My job destroyed my mental health.”

West’s life changed as well. No longer able to take babysitting gigs to make money, she moved back to her parent’s house in Sacramento near the beginning of the pandemic and continued to attend school at Cabrillo online.

“I was going back and forth because my boyfriend’s dad lives in Santa Cruz. We were living with him for a while,” West says. “After a couple months, when school obviously wasn’t going back into session, we both were like, ‘Well, we’ve got to move back home. We’re broke.’”

During the late summer, West was excited that Shaeffer wanted to remix “You.” But the stress of isolation and social media overload made it so Shaeffer couldn’t put meaningful time into working on it. It wasn’t until his job contract ended in November and he took a trip to San Diego to unwind that he had the mental bandwidth to make progress on the song.

“Part of what helped me was letting go of that initial intention and accepting that I didn’t need to add the kitchen sink just to justify it being a full electronic remix when we could just release the track as a collaboration and let it be the pop song/party song it is.”

The two have both made music independently for roughly two years. Shaeffer typically produces instrumental electronic music, while West writes singer-songwriter pop songs with an R&B twist. “You” is a special song, one that blends both of their worlds and makes a catchy dance floor anthem at a time when dance floors are all closed.

“Quentin’s a little bit more electronic vibe, dubstep-esque, indie. And I really like to write songs on my guitar and put it all together,” West says. “We have similar vibes, but different in the best way.”

The two still live in Sacramento and Reno. West takes classes at Cabrillo; Shaeffer is taking a semester off. Before the pandemic, both planned to stay in town a while and were considering eventually transferring to UCSC. Now they feel much more uncertain about their futures. But they continue working together—hopefully one day in person.

“I would love to work with Quentin more,” West says. “I think we’re a great pair.”

For more info, check out: quentinshaeffer.bandcamp.com and soundcloud.com/user-626746750.

Letter to the Editor: Don’t Dwell on Division

Letters to the Editor

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March 17, 2021

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Letter to the Editor: Don’t Dwell on Division

Re: “Beyond the Bust” (GT, 3/3): Regarding the presence of George Washington in Watsonville, I think of him as a window into the past. There is a beginning to every story.

Discussing how democracy began is an opportunity of learning from the past, as part of creating a better future. There are new heroes yet to be immortalized—Dolores Huerta, Leon Panetta and many other contemporaries leading us toward “a more perfect Union.”

What the Plaza in Watsonville needs is more art to inspire us all on this epic journey to freedom, and our community has the artistic talent to make that a reality. Shout out to the creative spirit: Let’s not dwell on division.

Laurie Hennig | Boulder Creek

This letter does not necessarily reflect the views of Good Times.

To submit a letter to the editor of Good Times: Letters should be originals—not copies of letters sent to other publications. Please include your name and email address to help us verify your submission (email address will not be published). Please be brief. Letters may be edited for length, clarity and to correct factual inaccuracies known to us. Send letters to le*****@*******es.sc.

Letter to the Editor: Great Risks Remain

Letters to the Editor

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March 17, 2021

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Letter to the Editor: Great Risks Remain

More than a year has passed since the pandemic was officially declared (though its seriousness had been known to the U.S. president not just for weeks, but for months).

Dr. Anthony Fauci appeared on Stephen Colbert’s “Quaranniversary Show” on March 13—the first time he hasn’t been blocked by that president from doing so. In an answer to Colbert’s question, he sums up what’s changed since January 20: “Everything!” Then we see his wide smile, the one he’d had to suppress in all those deadly “news briefings” in all those deadly months.

Even as Dr. Fauci speaks of the progress made, he also warns that great risks remain, and precautions are crucial, for “normalcy” is still far in the future. Yet folks here in Santa Cruz crowd downtown sidewalks, and the many unmasked sprawl on beaches, stroll down oceanside walkways, even step without permission into stores from time to time.

It wasn’t even a month ago that 500,000 U.S. deaths were marked, our losses at last mourned publicly and presidentially, with somber speeches, half-mast flags and memorial moments of silence. Only three weeks later, another 30,000 have died—a mournful number equally unfathomable, but less often mentioned.

As our town ricochets from one tier to another and reopenings abound, a sense of celebration circles the air (despite the new variants of the virus that also do). The stress is on all the things we now can do, especially those of us who are already vaccinated.

But I am wary. And weary. Even now, a year along, there are few things I am sure of. First among them: extraordinary measures are still needed. Together with this: I must balance my great gratitude for the progress being rightfully described, even celebrated, with something else that weighs as much—that weighs, in truth, far more: There is still so much we do not know. And I need to attend to (also gratefully, for I am still here to attend to things at all) those far less welcome facts, those far less reassuring, far more daunting truths that are still so much with us.

Wendy Martyna | Santa Cruz

This letter does not necessarily reflect the views of Good Times.

To submit a letter to the editor of Good Times: Letters should be originals—not copies of letters sent to other publications. Please include your name and email address to help us verify your submission (email address will not be published). Please be brief. Letters may be edited for length, clarity and to correct factual inaccuracies known to us. Send letters to le*****@*******es.sc.

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ARTS AND MUSIC

COMMUNITY

GROUPS

OUTDOOR